Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc48…c120 sports 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,151 (+3%) realized +$7,610 · open −$2,459
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%284W / 204L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Fees−$2,044est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,156
7 days+$4,155
14 days−$3,441
30 days+$4,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$4,766
other 15% −$1,049
world 1% −$163
crypto 0% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +38.9% +25.7% 55% 55% +0.6%
≤30d 420 +10.7% +0.2% 57% 57% -8.0%
≤90d 488 +10.1% -0.4% 58% 56% -7.3%
all 488 +10.1% -0.4% 58% 56% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 56% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 55% -16.2%
15% -18.6% 45% -24.3%
20% -26.6% 34% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$346 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,105
Realized+$7,610
Unrealized−$2,459
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses284 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,044
Open positions8
Markets (closed)488 / 498
History coverage44d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Paraguay 74¢ 100¢ $814 $1,099 +$285 (+35%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1,254 $1 −$1,253 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $209 $1 −$208 (-99%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $759 $1 −$758 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 15¢ 0¢ $165 $1 −$164 (-100%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 0¢ $66 $1 −$65 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $88 $1 −$87 (-99%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $209 $1 −$208 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $345 +$1,155 +335%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $799 +$263 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $495 −$495 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Jun 28 $286 +$114 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $572 +$506 +88%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $247 +$793 +321%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $759 −$759 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $56 +$2,353 +4212%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,760 −$1,166 -66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,039 +$1,161 +112%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 27 $341 −$25 -7%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $605 +$495 +82%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $883 −$883 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $286 −$286 -100%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $715 −$352 -49%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $396 +$704 +178%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $506 −$506 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $184 −$184 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $23 −$22 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,152 −$1,152 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $649 −$649 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $842 +$258 +31%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $649 −$649 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 26 $430 +$203 +47%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $869 +$230 +26%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $436 +$71 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $552 +$1,549 +280%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $390 +$210 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $994 +$1,126 +113%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $396 −$396 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $432 +$168 +39%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $353 +$147 +42%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $693 −$693 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $420 +$180 +43%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +33%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $468 +$132 +28%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $569 +$508 +89%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $360 +$234 +65%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $354 +$240 +68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $370 +$230 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $492 +$608 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $86 11m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $46 11m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $24 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $117 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $13 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $15 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $9 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $8 34m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 35m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $3 35m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $459 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $66 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $165 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,104.95 · official $1,104.95 (match) · 2804 history records