Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc47…1f7d crypto 1687 markets active 8h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$657 (+8%) realized +$657 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%884W / 714L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day105.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$436
7 days+$62
14 days+$333
30 days+$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,106
sports 1% +$20
other 1% +$21
politics 0% −$10
world 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 837 -9.2% -17.8% 49% 49% -8.2%
≤30d 1598 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 55% -1.6%
≤90d 1598 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 55% -1.6%
all 1598 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 55% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 55% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 54% -11.1%
15% -23.9% 53% -19.7%
20% -31.4% 51% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$657
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses884 / 714
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1598 / 1687
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day105.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1598 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.07 · official $9.07 (match) · 3500 history records