Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xcc44…c813 crypto 305 markets active 18h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate61%185W / 118L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$861per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$709
7 days−$534
14 days−$420
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$266
other 2% −$619
sports 1% +$61
world 0% −$17
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 20% -17.3%
≤30d 78 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 15% -13.3%
≤90d 176 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 22% -13.2%
all 303 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 25% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 11% -18.3%
15% -29.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$101 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses185 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)303 / 305
History coverage149d
Avg bet$861
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 303 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $80 −$4 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 $0 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $122 −$121 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $29 +$9 +30%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 −$3 -10%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $27 $0 -2%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$9 -19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $228 −$226 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,053 −$313 -30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $77 −$53 -68%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$4 -9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $543 +$35 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 −$63 -89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $541 +$32 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $411 +$54 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 14 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $180 +$31 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $279 +$2 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$7 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $88 +$34 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $267 +$12 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$11 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $390 +$17 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $361 +$29 +8%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 10 $357 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $258 +$42 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $224 +$42 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $211 +$13 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $201 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $254 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $271 −$16 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $67 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 66¢ $19 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 74¢ $21 18h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $122 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 20h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $27 20h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $29 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $29 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $197 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $197 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $25 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $25 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $77 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 40h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $579 40h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 93¢ $543 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $543 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $552 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $543 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 8¢ $7 43h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $501 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $71 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $573 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $465 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $464 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 1167 history records