Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc42…6deb other 60 markets active 6d ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate75%36W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$44
14 days+$40
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$76
world 17% −$35
tech 17% +$57
sports 2% +$17
crypto 2% −$67
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +37.6% +24.5% 100% 100% +29.8%
≤30d 4 +48.7% +34.6% 75% 75% +31.9%
≤90d 11 +17.5% +6.3% 55% 27% -9.2%
all 48 +5.0% -5.0% 75% 33% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 33% -9.3%
10% -14.1% 25% -17.9%
15% -22.4% 15% -25.9%
20% -30.0% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses36 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)48 / 60
History coverage187d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $220 $266 +$46 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $120 $103 −$17 (-14%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+7%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 89¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
China coup attempt before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 20 $10 +$17 +165%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 18 $1,000 −$38 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $900 +$8 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Mar 27 $2,729 −$8 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Mar 27 $730 −$2 -0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 19 $1 +$1 +51%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 04 $100 +$39 +39%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Feb 26 $2 +$1 +30%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 21 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Feb 13 $111 +$22 +20%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 13 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 24 $1 +$2 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 14 $10 +$1 +12%
China x India military clash by December 31? Jan 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 14 $1 $0 +10%
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 14 $1 $0 +25%
Will China blockade Taiwan by December 31? Jan 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 24 $5 $0 +6%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Lakers vs. Suns Dec 24 $10 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Oilers Dec 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Dec 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Pelicans Dec 09 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) Dec 08 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 08 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 06 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 1AM ET Dec 06 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 06 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $6 8d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 21d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 21d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $27 28d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $72 30d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 35d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $104 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $10 39d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 54d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 57d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 66d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 66d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 66d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 67d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 67d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 67d
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 70d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $10 70d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $50 77d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $890 81d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $890 82d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $900 82d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $900 82d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $904 82d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $904 82d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $907 82d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 99¢ $10 82d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $10 82d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $10 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.00 · official $573.00 (match) · 317 history records