Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc41…6b74 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$326 · open −$315
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$560
other 49% −$480
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +19.2% +7.8% 38% 38% +27.3%
≤30d 8 +19.2% +7.8% 38% 38% +27.3%
≤90d 8 +19.2% +7.8% 38% 38% +27.3%
all 8 +19.2% +7.8% 38% 38% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 38% +27.3%
10% -2.5% 38% +15.1%
15% -11.9% 38% +4.0%
20% -20.5% 38% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$107 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$326
Unrealized−$315
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 31¢ 11¢ $200 $74 −$126 (-63%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $103 +$92 +90%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $103 −$91 -88%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $204 +$487 +238%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $168 −$165 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $113 +$351 +312%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $195 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 29m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 73¢ $402 35m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $215 46m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $103 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $12 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 95¢ $501 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 19¢ $102 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $103 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 0¢ $2 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 9¢ $82 3h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 60¢ $191 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 31¢ $102 4h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $168 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $464 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $113 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.53 · official $74.53 (match) · 20 history records