Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CC 0xcc40…8ffd sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%22W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$7
other 33% −$65
crypto 14% +$2
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 24 -8.1% -16.9% 92% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -10.1%
10% -24.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,199) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$45 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses22 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage196d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? Jun 01 $213 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9? May 10 $213 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $213 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $213 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $213 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 20 $1,211 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 10 $1,210 +$1 +0%
Bulls vs. Kings Mar 09 $1,204 +$6 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $2.50? Mar 07 $1,203 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 23 above $1.50? Feb 28 $1,201 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $40? Feb 21 $172 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Feb 08 $1,199 +$2 +0%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jan 31 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of January? Jan 31 $898 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 22 $69 −$69 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs DRX (BO3) Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 7? Jan 08 $514 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $33 $0 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $55 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $101 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $243 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $621 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? BUY No 100¢ $213 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $213 50d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 100¢ $213 67d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 100¢ $213 79d
76ers vs. Wizards BUY 76ers 100¢ $213 85d
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY JD Gaming 100¢ $1,211 98d
Knicks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 100¢ $1,210 108d
Bulls vs. Kings BUY Kings 99¢ $1,204 109d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,203 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 23 above $1.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,201 120d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $40? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 126d
Mavericks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $1,199 138d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $898 148d
Warriors vs. Jazz BUY Warriors 100¢ $299 148d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 17¢ $69 154d
LoL: Gen.G vs DRX (BO3) BUY DRX $20 162d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $514 171d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $122 181d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $122 181d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $243 181d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $190 185d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $60 185d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $101 189d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $499 195d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $55 195d
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $53 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.89 · official $212.89 (match) · 51 history records