Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc3f…d6a3 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,138per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$14
economics 29% −$1
sports 8% −$1
other 5% −$44
world 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -33.3% -39.7% 0% 0% -39.7%
all 20 -1.8% -11.1% 5% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$992) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage183d
Avg bet$1,138
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $129 −$43 -33%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $980 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $981 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 14 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $987 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $988 −$1 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $988 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $989 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 21 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $994 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $995 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $5,941 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $21 49d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $65 58d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $17 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $41 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $7 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $64 111d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $978 119d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $980 122d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $980 126d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $981 129d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $981 130d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $982 131d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $982 132d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $983 133d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $983 134d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $984 135d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $984 136d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $986 137d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $986 138d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $987 139d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 140d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $987 141d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 142d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $988 143d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $988 144d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $988 145d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $988 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.37 · official $41.37 (match) · 91 history records