Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc3e…9766 crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-9%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$38
sports 18% −$28
other 5% −$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 62% -41.4%
≤30d 36 -14.7% -22.9% 53% 42% -24.3%
≤90d 36 -14.7% -22.9% 53% 42% -24.3%
all 36 -14.7% -22.9% 53% 42% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 42% -24.3%
10% -30.2% 28% -31.5%
15% -37.0% 22% -38.1%
20% -43.2% 17% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage22d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +63%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $17 +$3 +20%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $78 −$23 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 01 $77 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +18%
43 million or more views Jun 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +39%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $20 +$8 +38%
Dota 2: BALU vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Clo Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
between 39 and 41 million views Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$11 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 2h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $22 46h
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026 BUY 8¢ $26 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 2¢ $8 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $25 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $26 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $31 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records