Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc3a…386c world 23 markets active 22h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$2
other 15% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 6% +$5
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.5% +0.9% 43% 14% -10.2%
≤30d 9 +9.0% -1.4% 44% 11% -10.0%
≤90d 9 +9.0% -1.4% 44% 11% -10.0%
all 23 +5.1% -4.9% 43% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 9% -9.0%
10% -14.0% 9% -17.7%
15% -22.3% 9% -25.7%
20% -29.9% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage468d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $94 −$4 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $83 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $21 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio Apr 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will Leicester City be relegated? Apr 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 22 $21 $0 -0%
St. Louis vs. Dayton Mar 21 $15 +$6 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $4 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $20 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $18 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $38 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $40 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $40 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $45 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $21 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $21 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records