Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc39…8905 sports 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$754 (+13%) realized +$721 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%27W / 32L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$77
14 days−$192
30 days−$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$839
crypto 35% +$72
other 10% −$170
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.7% -14.7% 41% 32% -13.0%
≤30d 35 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 26% -26.9%
≤90d 43 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 30% -25.8%
all 59 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 37% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 37% +1.9%
10% -23.5% 36% -7.9%
15% -30.9% 34% -16.8%
20% -37.7% 34% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$54 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$721
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses27 / 32
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage238d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 0¢ 48¢ $0 $92 +$92 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $63 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$23 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $63 +$129 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $84 −$20 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$20 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $63 +$43 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $63 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $63 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $63 +$101 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$80 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $165 +$45 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$15 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $125 −$60 -48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $202 −$116 -57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $411 −$58 -14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $301 +$6 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 +$13 +6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $97 +$153 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 16 $71 +$46 +65%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$4 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$42 -82%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $53 −$45 -85%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $406 −$400 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $101 +$74 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $72 −$71 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $76 −$75 -99%
Raptors vs. Pistons May 23 $11 +$8 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 23 $20 +$34 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $51 +$81 +158%
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5 Jan 13 $1,300 +$1,466 +113%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5 Dec 10 $10 +$9 +92%
Pistons vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5 Dec 10 $10 +$10 +96%
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5 Dec 10 $10 +$10 +100%
Clippers vs. Celtics: O/U 220.5 Dec 10 $10 +$10 +104%
Warriors vs. Magic: O/U 224.5 Dec 10 $10 +$11 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $63 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $63 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $65 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $63 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $40 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $63 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $63 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $120 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $63 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $20 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $63 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $43 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $63 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $106 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $63 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $119 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $164 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.57 · official $110.00 · 129 history records