Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
CC 0xcc32…92d2 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16,604 (+21%) realized +$15,486 · open +$1,118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$3,233per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$582est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$11,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,565
7 days+$14,205
14 days+$14,205
30 days+$14,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$16,736
economics 6% +$1,860
other 6% −$3,273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +35.1% +22.2% 76% 76% +8.8%
≤30d 21 +35.1% +22.2% 76% 76% +8.8%
≤90d 21 +35.1% +22.2% 76% 76% +8.8%
all 21 +35.1% +22.2% 76% 76% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.2% 76% +8.8%
10% ← realistic here +10.5% 57% -1.6%
15% -0.1% 43% -11.1%
20% -9.9% 19% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$4,377) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +55% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,558 vs −$2,143 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$11,048
Realized+$15,486
Unrealized+$1,118
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$582
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3,233
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 46¢ 64¢ $4,890 $6,750 +$1,860 (+38%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 68¢ $4,329 $3,573 −$756 (-17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 56¢ 64¢ $567 $643 +$76 (+13%)
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Iraq 2¢ 1¢ $144 $82 −$62 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,405 +$1,200 +27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $515 −$515 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3,430 +$1,490 +43%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,105 +$331 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,805 +$299 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,393 +$414 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9,667 +$2,719 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,881 +$7,793 +414%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6,955 −$5,111 -74%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $881 −$881 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3,991 −$3,991 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $509 +$363 +71%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10,055 +$1,455 +14%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $278 −$219 -78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8,775 +$1,492 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,027 +$2,752 +268%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4,377 +$1,645 +38%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,931 +$936 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $797 +$718 +90%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,971 +$755 +38%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,413 +$560 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $42 39m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 56¢ $560 39m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $4,351 41m
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,150 42m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $21 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $1 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $4 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $3 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $4 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 44m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $21 45m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 45m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $1 45m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $0 46m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $49 46m
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) BUY Iraq 2¢ $1 46m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,605 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4,405 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $515 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,920 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3,430 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,048.04 · official $11,048.04 (match) · 94 history records