Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc30…c8a5 sports 1301 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81,478 (-90%) realized −$81,478 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%389W / 835L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$1,522est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$9,950
crypto 14% −$485
other 2% +$923
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -10.7% -19.2% 41% 37% -0.9%
≤30d 652 +3.0% -6.8% 35% 33% -4.7%
≤90d 1224 -8.3% -17.1% 32% 31% -20.2%
all 1224 -8.3% -17.1% 32% 31% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 31% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 30% -27.8%
15% -32.2% 29% -34.8%
20% -38.9% 28% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$56 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81,478
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses389 / 835
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,522
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1224 / 1301
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1224 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$24 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $17 −$1 -5%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $59 −$15 -26%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $24 −$11 -47%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $8 +$10 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$5 -54%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $9 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $37 −$36 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $79 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$11 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $87 −$35 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$20 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $36 +$59 +166%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $37 +$32 +88%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $69 −$1 -1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $36 −$28 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $144 +$137 +95%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 +$56 +56%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $59 +$49 +84%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$93 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$10 +38%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $147 +$168 +114%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $162 −$160 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $152 +$111 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 47h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 10¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 25¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 42¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $16 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 10¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL Young Ninjas 49¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 50¢ $17 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 15¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 31¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 70¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 46¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 19¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 45¢ $23 4d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 30¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records