Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc30…90e0 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 27% −$24
politics 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$6
culture 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage142d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $432 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $629 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $739 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $562 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $370 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $684 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $422 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $391 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $152 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $205 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $131 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 4h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 6h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 8h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 9h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 12h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 14h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 15h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 16h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 21h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 28h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 29h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 30h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 33h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 35h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 36h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 38h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 39h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 40h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 42h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 43h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.44 · official $55.44 (match) · 1502 history records