Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc2f…a15f sports 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,081 (+16%) realized +$15,959 · open +$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%180W / 154L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$260est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,899
7 days+$9,219
14 days+$9,219
30 days+$9,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$139
other 34% +$9,440
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.1% -23.2% 29% 29% +11.1%
≤30d 21 -15.1% -23.2% 29% 29% +11.1%
≤90d 100 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 42% +5.1%
all 334 +10.1% -0.4% 54% 48% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 48% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -9.9% 40% -10.0%
15% -18.6% 33% -18.7%
20% -26.6% 25% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$186 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$2,078
Realized+$15,959
Unrealized+$122
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses180 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$260
Open positions1
Markets (closed)334 / 334
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$308
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $1,955 $2,078 +$122 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,243 −$4,243 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $417 −$405 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $345 −$335 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6,108 +$8,892 +146%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $448 −$435 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,809 +$4,747 +262%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8,291 −$4,040 -49%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $119 −$118 -99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $541 −$526 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,200 +$800 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,166 +$3,585 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,000 +$4,366 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $996 −$969 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2,045 +$5,955 +291%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $4,111 −$4,069 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,334 −$1,300 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $948 −$925 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,692 −$768 -45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,001 −$987 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $317 −$315 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs Apr 28 $40 +$10 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 P Apr 28 $315 +$34 +11%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou Apr 28 $112 +$38 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 26 $637 −$637 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $298 −$298 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs AaB Esport (BO3) - United21 Group D Apr 08 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-MINLATE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Grou Apr 07 $220 +$80 +36%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs eLITenergy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Apr 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs eLITenergy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Apr 05 $184 −$182 -99%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 05 $16 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Apr 05 $86 −$27 -31%
Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Apr 05 $53 +$70 +132%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series # Apr 05 $104 +$45 +44%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Apr 04 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: TNT vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup # Apr 03 $113 −$102 -90%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Infinite (BO3) - United21 Group D Apr 03 $80 +$19 +24%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playoff Apr 03 $49 +$51 +104%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Apr 02 $18 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Grou Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 8Sins (BO3) - ESL Challenger League E Apr 02 $42 +$8 +18%
Counter-Strike: OG vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playo Apr 02 $56 +$24 +42%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs m1x (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Apr 02 $155 +$135 +87%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League E Apr 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group S Apr 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 01 $118 +$31 +26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs AM Gaming (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 01 $174 +$92 +52%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Falcons Force (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champ Mar 31 $72 +$27 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs WAZABI (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Gr Mar 31 $237 −$110 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,990 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $417 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $345 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $4,240 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $445 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $6,108 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $12 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $29 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,077.52 · official $1,996.05 · 3500 history records