Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc2f…2c5d crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-51%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%9W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$17
sports 34% −$30
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-49.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -43.7% -49.1% 18% 18% -61.8%
≤30d 51 -43.7% -49.1% 18% 18% -61.8%
≤90d 51 -43.7% -49.1% 18% 18% -61.8%
all 51 -43.7% -49.1% 18% 18% -61.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.1% 18% -61.8%
10% -54.0% 18% -65.5%
15% -58.4% 16% -68.8%
20% -62.5% 16% -71.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records