Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc29…7774 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$77,059 (+17%) realized +$69,873 · open +$7,186
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$7,167per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$309est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$299,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$21,134
world 31% +$1,938
politics 21% +$1,963
crypto 8% −$8,528
sports 3% +$106,515
economics 0% +$12,764
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+111.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +224.4% +193.5% 56% 56% +83.5%
≤30d 19 +215.0% +185.0% 58% 58% +118.3%
≤90d 34 +133.4% +111.2% 47% 47% +57.4%
all 34 +133.4% +111.2% 47% 47% +57.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +111.2% 47% +57.4%
10% +91.0% 38% +42.4%
15% ← realistic here +72.5% 35% +28.6%
20% +55.6% 29% +16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +96% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$4,830) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late +235% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
48.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,257 vs −$1,084 · ×8.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.59 per $1 lost it wins $7.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$299,163
Realized+$69,873
Unrealized+$7,186
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$309
Open positions32
Markets (closed)34 / 62
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$7,167
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $77,385 $77,775 +$390 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $27,188 $28,143 +$955 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $24,194 $27,099 +$2,905 (+12%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $22,661 $22,698 +$37 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $21,300 $18,689 −$2,611 (-12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14,593 $17,250 +$2,656 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $11,033 $14,850 +$3,817 (+35%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15,098 $13,850 −$1,248 (-8%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $11,364 $11,865 +$501 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10,999 $10,550 −$449 (-4%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $8,990 $9,073 +$82 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8,088 $7,450 −$638 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,575 $5,650 +$75 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,225 $5,450 −$1,775 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,476 $5,250 −$226 (-4%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $4,291 $4,287 −$4 (-0%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 35¢ 84¢ $1,741 $4,228 +$2,487 (+143%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 68¢ 99¢ $2,044 $2,979 +$935 (+46%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $3,110 $2,158 −$952 (-31%)
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $1,451 $1,634 +$183 (+13%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 84¢ $792 $1,478 +$686 (+87%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1,530 $1,432 −$98 (-6%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 85¢ 74¢ $1,587 $1,374 −$213 (-13%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 56¢ 52¢ $1,335 $1,243 −$92 (-7%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1,163 $1,104 −$59 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Jun 23 $567 +$77 +14%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 22 $460 +$12,764 +2773%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,837 −$342 -19%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,128 +$1,646 +77%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,009 −$641 -64%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,015 +$961 +95%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4,861 +$2,139 +44%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $316 −$89 -28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,731 +$100,525 +2694%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 11 $5,747 −$5,503 -96%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $305 +$235 +77%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $3,210 −$294 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $11,139 −$4,149 -37%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10,618 −$3,192 -30%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $4,204 +$697 +17%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $588 +$345 +59%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $1,982 +$1,043 +53%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $375 +$125 +33%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $734 +$3,066 +418%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1,623 −$410 -25%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $5,179 −$651 -13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 18 $2,925 −$45 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 18 $9,575 −$1,340 -14%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 16 $29,763 +$10,647 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $17,400 +$2,879 +16%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 11 $4,830 −$1,911 -40%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 05 $348 −$100 -29%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? May 03 $505 −$109 -22%
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 29 $510 −$510 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $2,200 +$1,545 +70%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 19 $3,670 +$9,410 +256%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $435 −$11 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 37m
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 37m
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $439 38m
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 2h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $8 2h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1,117 3h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8,701 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10,111 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3,938 4h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $251 6h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $47 6h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 6h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $224 6h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $872 7h
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $994 7h
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 99¢ $495 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $545 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $566 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $596 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $812 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,088 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,426 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,569 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,997 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $818 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $848 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $895 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,218 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,633 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2,139 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299,163.36 · official $299,170.89 (match) · 3500 history records