Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xcc29…5fce other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$988 (-1%) realized −$988 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%33W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$974per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$68
other 39% −$79
sports 11% −$841
economics 2% $0
world 1% −$14
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -12.2% -20.6% 5% 0% -11.0%
all 134 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 11% -10.2%
10% -17.1% 10% -18.8%
15% -25.1% 9% -26.7%
20% -32.5% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,492) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$667
Realized−$988
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses33 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage142d
Avg bet$974
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $666 $667 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $2,105 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $709 +$1 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $707 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,741 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $661 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,365 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $3,030 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $3,132 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 20 $721 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,136 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,685 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,201 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,493 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,602 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $3,935 −$4 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 02 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $871 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,533 −$3 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $3,260 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,492 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,977 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,453 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $562 2h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $360 5h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $361 6h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $533 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $534 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $618 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $619 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $666 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $706 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $707 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,029 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,030 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,031 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,024 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $886 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $887 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $661 16d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $661 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 17d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $711 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $771 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $773 17d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 17d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 18d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $666.64 · official $666.64 (match) · 415 history records