Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc28…ede2 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$433 (+22%) realized +$470 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%34W / 26L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$350
14 days+$516
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$618
other 33% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -26.7% -33.6% 44% 44% +12.6%
≤30d 60 +2.4% -7.3% 57% 57% +15.0%
≤90d 60 +2.4% -7.3% 57% 57% +15.0%
all 60 +2.4% -7.3% 57% 57% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 57% +15.0%
10% -16.2% 52% +4.0%
15% -24.3% 45% -6.0%
20% -31.7% 42% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$470
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses34 / 26
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions7
Markets (closed)60 / 67
History coverage14d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $26 −$14 (-35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Under 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $152 +$36 +24%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $304 +$232 +76%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$3 -6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $203 +$142 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $222 +$48 +22%
Lionel Messi: 1+ shots Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $35 +$11 +32%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 +$5 +238%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $35 +$23 +64%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $15 +$13 +86%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +144%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 +$8 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 +$3 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 +$12 +76%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 83¢ $188 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $152 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $304 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $3 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 92¢ $0 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 92¢ $64 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $203 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $270 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ shots BUY No $2 4d
Lionel Messi: 1+ shots BUY No $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $222 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 97¢ $32 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 66¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.76 · official $143.81 (match) · 118 history records