Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcc26…32ca
world · 106 markets active 21h ago
0.0score
+$39,546 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37,733 · open +$946
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,463
Realized+$37,733
Unrealized+$946
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses45 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)130 / 106
History coverage20d
Avg bet$12,286
Trades / day171.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 10 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,571
7 days+$9,847
14 days+$35,207
30 days+$37,733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,698 $3,709 +$11 (+0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 48¢ 76¢ $1,380 $2,182 +$803 (+58%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,882 $1,954 +$72 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Yes 81¢ 89¢ $931 $1,023 +$92 (+10%)
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? No 49¢ 76¢ $490 $755 +$265 (+54%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $493 $510 +$16 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $440 $361 −$80 (-18%)
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intelligence? No 99¢ 100¢ $353 $355 +$2 (+1%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $176 $256 +$80 (+46%)
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National Intelligence? No 99¢ 100¢ $224 $226 +$2 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $127 $80 −$48 (-37%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $135 $41 −$94 (-69%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $133 $10 −$123 (-93%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? No 0¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $161 $0 −$161 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? No 9¢ 0¢ $271 $0 −$271 (-100%)
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $278 $0 −$278 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $357 $0 −$357 (-100%)
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $744 $0 −$744 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 12 $161 −$270 -167%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 12 $357 −$357 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1,315 +164656%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 12 $744 −$744 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $123 +$217 +176%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $188 −$188 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 12 $143 −$1,902 -1330%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$1,021 +4640%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Jun 12 $42 −$20 -48%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Jun 12 $22 −$12 -56%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,272 +$110 +9%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions rema Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Jun 12 $272 −$332 -122%
U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Jun 12 $380 −$380 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 12 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Jun 12 $99 −$10 -10%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Jun 12 $343 −$461 -134%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $336 −$394 -117%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Jun 12 $52 −$348 -674%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (S Jun 12 $23 −$36 -158%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Jun 12 $9 −$183 -2053%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $108 −$435 -404%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 11 $57 +$43 +75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $1,829 +$542 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $749 +$778 +104%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $789 +$3,337 +423%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $6,496 −$1,561 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $28,016 −$5,720 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $21,189 +$7,561 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $100,589 +$11,318 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $20,844 +$1,632 +8%
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $353 +$2 +1%
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I Jun 11 $225 +$2 +1%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $3,699 +$11 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $7,077 +$228 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8,829 −$238 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $700 −$282 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $248 −$248 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $616 −$571 -93%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $19,540 −$52 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $15,056 +$1,423 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 63% +$9,923
crypto 28% +$29,126
other 7% +$2,304
politics 2% +$3,267
finance 0% +$114
tech 0% −$223
sports 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $2,086 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,151 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $967 21h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $808 21h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $272 21h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $4,500 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,534 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $10,674 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $5,063 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3,051 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3,690 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3,599 21h
Will Trump announce Mike Flynn as the next Director of National Intell BUY No 99¢ $353 21h
Will Trump announce Sebastian Gorka as the next Director of National I BUY No 99¢ $225 21h
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig BUY No 100¢ $3,699 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $789 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,400 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $8,641 21h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $2,934 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3,347 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $124 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $4,073 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $4 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $5,936 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $8,175 24h
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $490 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +25.3% +13.4% 37% 17% -7.3%
≤30d 130 +39.2% +25.9% 35% 16% -6.7%
≤90d 130 +39.2% +25.9% 35% 16% -6.7%
all 130 +39.2% +25.9% 35% 16% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover171.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.9% 16% -6.7%
10% +13.9% 14% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here +2.9% 12% -23.7%
20% -7.2% 9% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,462.98 · official $11,462.98 (match) · 3500 history records