Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc25…a533 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$3
other 29% $0
politics 17% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.3%
all 43 -0.4% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage294d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $25 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $12 −$2 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $28 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $28 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Keri Russell win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will PPP/C win the most seats in the 2025 Guyana National Assembly ele Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Aug 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $25 18h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $22 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $22 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $24 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $28 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $8 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 24¢ $2 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $12 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records