Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xcc24…a62f other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,068 (-11%) realized −$1,806 · open −$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%33W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$2,738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$1,203
14 days−$1,373
30 days−$1,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$512
world 20% −$574
sports 10% −$978
politics 9% −$145
tech 6% +$76
crypto 4% +$155
economics 3% −$113
weather 1% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -21.9% -29.3% 15% 7% -30.6%
≤30d 60 -22.1% -29.5% 15% 7% -31.5%
≤90d 61 -21.9% -29.3% 15% 7% -29.4%
all 130 -12.3% -20.6% 25% 15% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 15% -20.9%
10% -28.2% 13% -28.5%
15% -35.2% 11% -35.4%
20% -41.5% 10% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$52 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$2,738
Realized−$1,806
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses33 / 97
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions7
Markets (closed)130 / 138
History coverage236d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $900 $707 −$193 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $500 $468 −$32 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $500 $443 −$57 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$4 -9%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$45 -89%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$14 -27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $51 −$4 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $51 +$5 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $81 −$3 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $81 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $101 −$9 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $100 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 16 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $43 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $43 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $46 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $47 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $47 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $49 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $49 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $49 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 30h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 32¢ $102 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 30h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 31h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,738.11 · official $2,738.11 (match) · 372 history records