Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc20…5b40 world 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$12
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
other 22% +$1
sports 16% −$2
politics 15% −$3
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 33 -1.1% -10.6% 39% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 78 -0.9% -10.3% 35% 3% -9.6%
all 102 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 67
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage332d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $234 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $334 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $24 −$10 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $154 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $158 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $158 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $275 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $239 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $79 −$6 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $327 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $13 −$2 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $182 −$5 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $498 −$6 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $26 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $189 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $150 +$5 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $290 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $165 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $164 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $293 −$4 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $450 +$43 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $120 −$23 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $92 −$5 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $148 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 22 $178 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $169 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $156 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $154 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $140 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $764 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $141 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $84 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 16m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $90 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $58 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $28 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $8 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $18 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $14 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $24 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $155 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $154 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $91 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $11 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $80 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $159 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $159 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $158 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $158 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 464 history records