Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc20…0522 sports 1111 markets active 12h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,605 (-18%) realized −$1,606 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%448W / 654L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days+$21
14 days−$8
30 days−$1,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,497
sports 49% −$117
world 0% +$14
crypto 0% +$8
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +10.0% -0.4% 52% 48% -1.9%
≤30d 45 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 42% -74.8%
≤90d 186 -1.6% -11.0% 41% 40% -55.2%
all 1102 +1.7% -8.0% 41% 40% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 40% -25.4%
10% -16.8% 40% -32.5%
15% -24.8% 40% -39.1%
20% -32.2% 39% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1,606
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses448 / 654
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1102 / 1111
History coverage204d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 −$3 -26%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 −$15 -50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$8 +109%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $4 +$12 +291%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$7 +114%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $37 +$30 +79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $6 +$5 +76%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 09 $7 +$7 +97%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 08 $5 +$7 +140%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $12 +$9 +73%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 07 $15 +$18 +119%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $33 −$33 -99%
Centurion 2: Tuncay Duran vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 02 $4 +$14 +312%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 02 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $25 −$6 -26%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 31 $14 −$14 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $74 −$73 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $75 +$38 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $48 +$27 +57%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 25 $1,427 −$1,400 -98%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 14 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 14 $10 −$10 -98%
CA Osasuna vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $6 +$5 +79%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $10 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $13 14h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 14h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 28h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 31¢ $4 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 46h
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 29¢ $3 47h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Besiktas 25¢ $4 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $32 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $7 47h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $4 47h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 47h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $16 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 47h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $6 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia BUY Reyer Venezia 19¢ $3 3d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY La Laguna Tenerife 18¢ $3 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $37 4d
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball BUY Cholet 31¢ $4 5d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY La Laguna Tenerife 26¢ $5 5d
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg BUY Brose Bamberg 33¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.92 · official $46.92 (match) · 1645 history records