Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc1e…d356 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$581 (-16%) realized −$570 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%27W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$700
7 days+$984
14 days+$1,029
30 days+$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$539
crypto 35% −$255
world 16% −$582
sports 5% +$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +73.2% +56.7% 67% 67% +123.1%
≤30d 16 +21.4% +9.8% 44% 44% +34.8%
≤90d 16 +21.4% +9.8% 44% 44% +34.8%
all 89 -19.8% -27.5% 30% 30% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 30% -9.2%
10% -34.4% 29% -17.9%
15% -40.7% 27% -25.9%
20% -46.5% 21% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$31 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$570
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses27 / 62
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage134d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $327 +$740 +226%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $151 +$159 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $443 −$440 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $97 +$318 +326%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +291%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$29 +36%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $177 −$172 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 15 $15 +$5 +30%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $541 −$541 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 25 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union a Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Feb 25 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 25 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 25 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Feb 25 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 17 $17 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 15 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 15 $3 +$19 +621%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 15 $4 +$5 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 15 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 15 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 15 $35 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 15 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 15 $34 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 15 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $163 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $163 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs. Mex BUY 2¢ $6 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $151 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 11d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $443 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 23¢ $10 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $20 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $12 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $20 13d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $20 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $20 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 16¢ $1 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 15d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 17d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 17d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $20 17d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 17d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.59 · official $25.59 (match) · 373 history records