Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc1c…8436 other 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$151 (+1%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$12
other 14% −$9
politics 13% −$6
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% +$178
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 +5.0% -5.0% 16% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 57 +11.7% +1.1% 30% 21% -7.5%
all 73 +10.2% -0.3% 29% 18% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 18% -8.9%
10% -9.9% 18% -17.6%
15% -18.6% 15% -25.6%
20% -26.5% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×6.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage592d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $8 +$7 +97%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $132 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $237 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $280 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $438 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $206 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $209 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $215 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $223 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $230 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $438 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $23 +$1 +5%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $8 +$6 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $11 +$14 +124%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $9 +$3 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $12 +$1 +10%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $13 +$8 +57%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 01 $25 +$44 +178%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Mar 30 $26 +$12 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 19m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 20h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $137 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $8 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.23 · official $137.23 (match) · 282 history records