Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CC 0xcc1b…1e1b other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,540per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$41
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$102
other 42% −$535
sports 9% +$630
world 1% −$31
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +8.6% -1.8% 10% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 64 +4.9% -5.1% 11% 9% -10.0%
all 125 +6.6% -3.6% 22% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 18% -9.5%
10% -12.8% 18% -18.2%
15% -21.2% 18% -26.1%
20% -29.0% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,688) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$19 · ×3.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,540
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $422 $424 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,310 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,342 −$6 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,394 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $6,138 −$8 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $6,347 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,877 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,545 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $83 +$38 +46%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,193 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $58 +$37 +64%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $5,336 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,329 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,519 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,821 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $5,454 −$5 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $53 +$81 +152%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $74 +$39 +52%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $836 −$836 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,908 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $2,815 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,358 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $8,366 −$6 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $4,286 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $7,197 −$7 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $3,879 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $985 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $365 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 3h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $758 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $608 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $609 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $931 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $932 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,133 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,135 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $422 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,549 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,552 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,555 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,557 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,422 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,423 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,553 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,556 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,561 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,563 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,543 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $423.73 · official $423.73 (match) · 453 history records