Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc1b…b201 politics 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$7
politics 35% −$9
world 7% −$1
finance 7% −$1
sports 6% −$2
culture 5% −$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$825) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,256
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage82d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,256 $1,256 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,175 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 18 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,216 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $52 $0 -1%
Will Park Jae-ho win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 21 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 20 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $796 −$2 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi May 19 $791 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kim Eun-hye win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Apr 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Apr 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $43 $0 -0%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $121 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? Mar 28 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $71 3m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $21 11m
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 22m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $24 28m
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $26 43m
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $118 51m
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $908 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $299 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,208 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,194 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $16 36h
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $21 36h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,172 36h
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $21 36h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $906 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $69 36h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $248 37h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 37h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 37h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,264 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,203 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,270 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,255.61 · official $1,255.61 (match) · 116 history records