Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc15…bc1f other 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%19W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$47
sports 24% −$23
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 2% +$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses19 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage140d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $830 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $291 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $328 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $492 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $189 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $411 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $474 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $754 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $299 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $396 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $375 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $298 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $713 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $388 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $345 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $381 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $214 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 4h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 5h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 11h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 13h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 14h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 17h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $59 24h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 27h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 29h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 32h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 34h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 39h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 40h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 42h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.77 · official $58.77 (match) · 1441 history records