Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc0f…0522 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized +$73 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$47
other 44% −$126
world 3% +$53
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 1 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 1 -2.8% -12.0% 0% 0% -12.0%
all 31 -15.2% -23.3% 55% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 13% -9.6%
10% -30.6% 13% -18.3%
15% -37.3% 6% -26.2%
20% -43.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$54 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$1,032
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage223d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $863 $821 −$42 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $283 $211 −$73 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$6 -3%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? Dec 10 $235 +$19 +8%
Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31? Dec 01 $253 +$5 +2%
Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31? Dec 01 $65 $0 +0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 01 $60 +$1 +1%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Dec 01 $44 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $749 +$192 +26%
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Nov 26 $50 +$2 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Zelensky resigns in 2025? Nov 26 $100 +$1 +0%
5kt meteor strike in 2025? Nov 26 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Nov 26 $300 +$2 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 24 $95 +$5 +5%
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 163m and Nov 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $102 +$50 +49%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30? Nov 22 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 21 $145 −$145 -100%
Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 21 $626 +$18 +3%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Nov 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 20 $637 −$10 -2%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November? Nov 19 $875 +$22 +2%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Nov 19 $987 +$359 +36%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30? Nov 18 $30 −$10 -34%
Will Trump say "Every Arab" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Nov 18 $50 −$20 -40%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 18 $26 −$6 -22%
Will Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Saudi PM events on November 18 Nov 17 $140 −$4 -3%
Will Trump say "F-35" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Nov 17 $21 −$9 -42%
Will Trump say “F-35” this week? (November 10 - 16) Nov 16 $253 −$2 -1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Nov 15 $218 +$16 +7%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15? Nov 15 $200 +$53 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $197 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $197 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $287 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $679 5h
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $254 158d
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? SELL No 84¢ $254 197d
Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31? SELL No 92¢ $258 205d
Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $65 205d
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $61 205d
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $44 205d
Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31? BUY No 90¢ $253 206d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? SELL No 100¢ $758 206d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 210d
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 210d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 211d
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 211d
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? BUY No 79¢ $101 211d
Zelensky resigns in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $101 211d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 92¢ $300 211d
5kt meteor strike in 2025? SELL No 90¢ $300 211d
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? BUY No 77¢ $135 211d
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 211d
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? SELL No 86¢ $165 211d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 73¢ $137 213d
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? SELL No 71¢ $137 213d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 59¢ $100 213d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 100¢ $100 213d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 71¢ $34 215d
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.33 · official $1,032.33 (match) · 82 history records