Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xcc0b…4db0 sports 695 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$744 (+3%) realized +$735 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%352W / 342L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$360est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$164
14 days−$54
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$453
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$3
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -25.8% -32.9% 44% 44% -32.6%
≤30d 113 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 50% -19.8%
≤90d 477 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 49% -9.7%
all 694 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 50% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 50% -8.1%
10% -15.7% 49% -16.9%
15% -23.8% 43% -25.0%
20% -31.3% 38% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$34 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$735
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses352 / 342
Est. fees paid−$360
Open positions1
Markets (closed)694 / 695
History coverage120d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 166.5 Over 57¢ 69¢ $42 $51 +$9 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $45 −$2 -5%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers Jun 27 $24 +$8 +34%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 27 $22 −$18 -79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $20 −$19 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $25 −$24 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +34%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $10 +$4 +42%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 25 $10 −$9 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $57 −$57 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $26 +$6 +24%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 Jun 24 $41 −$30 -73%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $47 +$14 +29%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $50 +$47 +93%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 22 $30 +$29 +97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 21 $39 +$31 +80%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $22 +$20 +93%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $25 +$23 +92%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $20 +$44 +216%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $14 −$13 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $19 +$22 +114%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 17 $14 +$8 +58%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$31 +152%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$5 +27%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $36 +$21 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 57¢ $43 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $43 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $5 13h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers SELL Hanwha Eagles 100¢ $32 13h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 64¢ $20 16h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers BUY Hanwha Eagles 74¢ $24 17h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 67¢ $20 22h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 SELL Over 11¢ $5 22h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 51¢ $22 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 63¢ $20 44h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $25 47h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $15 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 70¢ $10 3d
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 69¢ $57 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $26 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 32¢ $31 3d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 SELL Over 14¢ $11 3d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $47 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 SELL Over $1 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 50¢ $22 5d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 6d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.34 · official $51.35 (match) · 1452 history records