Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc0a…8b2f sports 628 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,362 (-4%) realized −$1,329 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%376W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$213
14 days+$127
30 days−$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,342
other 7% −$71
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +21.1% +9.6% 66% 66% +16.9%
≤30d 195 -2.8% -12.1% 58% 56% -10.6%
≤90d 564 -5.6% -14.6% 59% 55% -14.0%
all 626 -4.1% -13.2% 60% 56% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 56% -13.3%
10% -21.5% 48% -21.6%
15% -29.1% 36% -29.2%
20% -36.1% 25% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$41 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$1,329
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses376 / 250
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions2
Markets (closed)626 / 628
History coverage101d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 64¢ $160 $132 −$28 (-18%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 65¢ 58¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $151 +$69 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $49 +$7 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$45 +152%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $27 +$19 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Fra Jun 23 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 +$20 +41%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $39 +$22 +55%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $24 +$42 +172%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$14 +67%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$20 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $9 +$6 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $57 −$42 -74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $29 +$15 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $14 +$15 +109%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $7 +$7 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 −$12 -46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $12 −$2 -21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $67 −$22 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $11 +$20 +180%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$2 +21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $17 −$11 -62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$8 -78%
Jonathan David: 3+ shots Jun 19 $16 +$11 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $14 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $9 +$6 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$23 -33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$12 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 −$20 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $14 +$7 +50%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $9 +$5 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$7 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $27 −$6 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$5 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$5 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $51 54m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $161 54m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $220 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $151 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $27 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $68 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $48 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 93¢ $61 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $67 20h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $39 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $24 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 25h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $41 25h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $20 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Fra BUY 52¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $14 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 21¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 64¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $43 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $29 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $14 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.24 · official $181.79 · 1336 history records