Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc09…88ed weather 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,705 (+18%) realized +$1,648 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%48W / 159L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$65
14 days+$82
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$774
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -34.1% -40.3% 25% 25% +3.7%
≤30d 86 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% +10.6%
≤90d 207 -13.5% -21.7% 23% 23% +1.7%
all 207 -13.5% -21.7% 23% 23% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 23% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 23% -8.0%
15% -36.1% 21% -16.9%
20% -42.3% 19% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$35 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$1,648
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses48 / 159
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)207 / 211
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 72¢ $31 $151 +$120 (+393%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Yes 52¢ 26¢ $111 $55 −$56 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$39 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$14 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$34 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$12 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$11 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $13 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$92 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 −$33 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 −$42 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $78 +$142 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 −$48 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 −$46 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$49 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $35 −$16 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $112 −$38 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 06 $59 +$236 +399%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $107 −$103 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $60 −$42 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $39 −$36 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$8 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $74 +$68 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $49 −$44 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $39 −$37 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $45 +$54 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $39 −$15 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 −$6 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.87 · official $218.45 · 3500 history records