Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc09…95e2 sports 1411 markets active 0h ago coverage 294d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 294d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,319 (-52%) realized −$2,319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%110W / 1280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$35
14 days−$47
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,642
other 21% +$90
crypto 4% −$162
politics 1% −$65
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -63.0% -66.6% 13% 12% -42.1%
≤30d 195 -55.2% -59.4% 10% 7% -49.8%
≤90d 473 -54.0% -58.4% 9% 8% -58.3%
all 1390 -63.5% -67.0% 8% 7% -49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.0% 7% -49.3%
10% -70.2% 7% -54.2%
15% -73.1% 6% -58.6%
20% -75.7% 5% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$2,319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses110 / 1280
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1390 / 1411
History coverage294d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 6¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+142%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$15 +723%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $7 +$4 +50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 2¢ $1 13m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 3¢ $1 13m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 10¢ $1 13m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 6¢ $1 54m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 1¢ $1 54m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 7¢ $1 55m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 1¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 5¢ $1 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 0¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 17¢ $1 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $5 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $5 23h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 3¢ $1 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 0¢ $1 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 1¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 6¢ $1 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 6¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.07 · official $22.48 (match) · 3500 history records