Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc07…cd29 weather 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$54 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$163
weather 18% −$104
politics 17% +$13
sports 15% +$125
world 4% +$73
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.1% -22.3% 67% 33% -14.7%
≤30d 4 +16.9% +5.8% 75% 50% +27.6%
≤90d 45 +14.0% +3.2% 42% 33% -12.2%
all 51 +20.1% +8.7% 43% 35% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 35% -12.3%
10% -1.7% 35% -20.7%
15% -11.2% 31% -28.4%
20% -19.9% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 53.65668430340038% → late -12.144799801937681% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage395d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $37 $34 −$4 (-10%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 22? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 22? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 20? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$37 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $146 +$161 +110%
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? May 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $115 −$85 -74%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $54 −$53 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $31 −$17 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25? Apr 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? Apr 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 16? Apr 23 $15 −$11 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 23? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 21? Apr 21 $2 +$8 +519%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 20? Apr 20 $9 +$5 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 22? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 22? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $61 +$19 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Apr 19 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 19? Apr 19 $109 −$107 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 18? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 19? Apr 19 $2 +$3 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 18? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 18? Apr 18 $4 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 18? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 18? Apr 18 $10 +$8 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? Apr 18 $9 +$16 +178%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap Apr 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17 Apr 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 17? Apr 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 16? Apr 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 17? Apr 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 16? Apr 16 $5 +$7 +143%
Santa Cruz: Federico Coria vs Gonzalo Bueno Apr 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 15? Apr 15 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 15? Apr 15 $1 +$8 +1050%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 −$9 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 15? Apr 14 $0 $0 -48%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $1 $0 +45%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $155 +$9 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $149 +$6 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $100 +$46 +46%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$51 +102%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $20 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 18 $7 +$23 +322%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? Feb 17 $93 −$55 -59%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $160 −$70 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 26m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 32m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 22h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $278 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 41¢ $116 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 36d
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? SELL Yes 70¢ $2 36d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 38d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 39d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 39¢ $53 39d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 39d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 39d
Will Inter win Coppa Italia? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 40d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 47d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 48d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 49d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 51d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 51d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 51d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 24? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.46 · official $38.46 (match) · 204 history records