Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc04…f007 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$61 (+18%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%24W / 17L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% +$5
other 35% +$11
crypto 13% +$43
sports 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +27.3% +15.2% 59% 51% +1.8%
≤30d 41 +27.3% +15.2% 59% 51% +1.8%
≤90d 41 +27.3% +15.2% 59% 51% +1.8%
all 41 +27.3% +15.2% 59% 51% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 51% +1.8%
10% +4.1% 32% -7.9%
15% -5.9% 17% -16.8%
20% -15.1% 12% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? Yes 13¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$5 -44%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 26 $40 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$5 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$4 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +42%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 22 $1 $0 +23%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA Jun 21 $1 $0 +15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $1 $0 +23%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $1 $0 +15%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 21 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$49 +4579%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 39¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 2h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL No 98¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 41¢ $14 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 3d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 81¢ $40 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $2 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.57 · official $65.57 (match) · 101 history records