Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc02…ac9f crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,064 (+8%) realized +$1,064 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$911
7 days+$613
14 days+$483
30 days+$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$513
world 45% +$1,366
crypto 1% −$30
sports 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -49.7% -54.5% 25% 25% -0.3%
≤30d 20 -61.7% -65.3% 20% 15% -3.5%
≤90d 20 -61.7% -65.3% 20% 15% -3.5%
all 39 -46.5% -51.6% 26% 23% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 23% +2.9%
10% -56.2% 18% -7.0%
15% -60.5% 15% -16.0%
20% -64.3% 15% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$22 · ×11.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$1,064
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage156d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,985 +$960 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,025 +$114 +11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,027 −$361 -35%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $912 −$50 -6%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,025 −$63 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 03 $1,000 +$571 +57%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $4,982 +$795 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 22 $10 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 22 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 22 $1 +$4 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 22 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $3,944 18m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,985 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,139 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $667 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $862 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $5 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $962 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $912 50d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,027 50d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1,025 50d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 50d
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? SELL No 83¢ $1,571 143d
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? BUY No 53¢ $1,000 146d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5,777 146d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $4,982 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.77 · official $9.81 (match) · 117 history records