Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc01…6f1a other 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%19W / 158L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$34
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$28
politics 25% −$27
sports 22% −$20
crypto 8% −$12
finance 5% −$18
culture 4% −$4
economics 4% −$4
world 3% −$5
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 16% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 166 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 177 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses19 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage100d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $56 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi Jun 18 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $53 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $169 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $57 +$1 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $93 −$2 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $135 −$4 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $61 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $191 −$3 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $528 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $210 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $61 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 06 $42 −$2 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $33 −$1 -4%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $117 −$3 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $652 −$4 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $125 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 54m
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY No 98¢ $27 6h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 7h
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 17h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 24h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $52 24h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $53 31h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $52 32h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $53 37h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $61 38h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $57 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $28 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $28 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $8 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 87¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.68 · official $56.68 (match) · 705 history records