Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc01…3daf other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$33
sports 25% −$22
culture 9% −$9
politics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$7
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 198 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 240
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage125d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $841 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $310 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $326 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $256 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $298 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $389 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $391 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $137 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 02 $328 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $347 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 2h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $24 2h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $24 4h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $48 6h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 6h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 7h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 12h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 13h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 15h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 16h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 18h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 19h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 21h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 25h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 27h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 28h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 30h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 31h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 33h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $49 34h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 36h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 37h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 39h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1311 history records