Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xcc00…e1b0 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$454 (-29%) realized −$452 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day52.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$109
sports 23% −$200
other 8% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -30.0% -36.7% 38% 38% -36.1%
≤30d 26 -30.0% -36.7% 38% 38% -36.1%
≤90d 26 -30.0% -36.7% 38% 38% -36.1%
all 26 -30.0% -36.7% 38% 38% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 38% -36.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 38% -42.2%
15% -48.3% 35% -47.8%
20% -53.4% 31% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$49 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$452
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day52.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$13 +43%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $41 +$41 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $82 +$42 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$36 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$22 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $58 +$35 +61%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $81 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $85 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $114 −$96 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $114 +$66 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $62 +$47 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $89 −$58 -66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $62 +$46 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$30 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $55 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $81 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.93 · official $163.93 (match) · 101 history records