Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbff…ce3b crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+6%) realized +$137 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%96W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$34
14 days+$39
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$153
crypto 32% −$38
other 14% +$106
world 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 55% -6.8%
≤30d 37 -0.5% -10.0% 51% 49% -7.6%
≤90d 168 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 52% -12.0%
all 168 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 52% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 52% -12.0%
10% -25.2% 45% -20.4%
15% -32.4% 30% -28.1%
20% -39.0% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses96 / 72
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)168 / 176
History coverage64d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+63%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $301 −$148 -49%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 Jun 23 $3 +$7 +227%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $94 +$11 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$50 +50%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $146 +$71 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $45 −$16 -35%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 −$16 -26%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$15 +48%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$24 +24%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $91 +$25 +27%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$4 -77%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $113 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $25 +$13 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 08 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 08 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 47¢ $152 7m
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $301 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0 BUY 30¢ $3 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $94 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND BUY 24¢ $7 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 BUY 30¢ $5 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 42h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 BUY 30¢ $5 43h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $124 43h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 45¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $45 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $45 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $61 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 80¢ $45 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 4d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.93 · official $45.93 (match) · 362 history records