Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CB 0xcbf9…dcde sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$83 (+6%) realized +$81 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$5
politics 36% −$1
crypto 6% +$75
culture 4% −$2
economics 4% −$3
weather 4% +$20
other 3% −$13
tech 2% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 50% +18.8%
≤30d 11 +31.1% +18.6% 55% 55% +31.2%
≤90d 11 +31.1% +18.6% 55% 55% +31.2%
all 38 +12.6% +1.9% 26% 26% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 26% -4.6%
10% -7.9% 24% -13.7%
15% -16.8% 24% -22.0%
20% -24.9% 24% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage442d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? No 72¢ 76¢ $28 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $23 +$16 +68%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $13 +$19 +143%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$23 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 29 $9 +$10 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $8 +$10 +131%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $10 +$26 +266%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $253 $0 -0%
Texas vs. Georgia Nov 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Liberty vs. Florida International Nov 20 $12 +$15 +122%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 15 $15 +$19 +127%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Nov 13 $8 +$20 +245%
Houston vs. UCF Nov 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Penguins vs. Devils Nov 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 26 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 25 $43 −$1 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 21 $41 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? Aug 21 $7 −$1 -9%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 20 $16 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 13 $20 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? Aug 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 23 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 2? Apr 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 18? Apr 18 $5 −$1 -16%
NBA Playoffs: Pacers vs. Bucks (To Advance) Apr 18 $9 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 12 $4 $0 -2%
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May? Apr 11 $7 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 02 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 58¢ $23 30h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $6 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $18 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 27¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $19 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? BUY No 44¢ $9 22d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 24d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? BUY Down 36¢ $6 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 26¢ $10 28d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $247 165d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $247 165d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $247 165d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 165d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $255 165d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $255 165d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $253 165d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $253 165d
Texas vs. Georgia BUY Texas 34¢ $11 214d
Liberty vs. Florida International BUY Florida International 45¢ $12 215d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Warriors 44¢ $15 216d
Cavaliers vs. Heat BUY Heat 29¢ $8 220d
Penguins vs. Devils BUY Penguins 37¢ $3 222d
Houston vs. UCF BUY UCF 50¢ $9 223d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 57¢ $18 295d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 61¢ $19 296d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 38¢ $15 296d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 38¢ $15 296d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.45 · official $29.45 (match) · 82 history records