Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcbf9…d484 crypto 1719 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$696 (+3%) realized +$696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%177W / 1564L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$103
14 days+$545
30 days+$563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$643
other 11% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 887 -2.6% -11.8% 9% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1741 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 1% -7.4%
≤90d 1741 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 1% -7.4%
all 1741 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 1% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -7.4%
10% -19.0% 1% -16.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -24.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.94 per $1 lost it wins $4.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses177 / 1564
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1741 / 1719
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1741 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$4 -229%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$3 -240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$3 -234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$20 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$3 -250%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$3 -235%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $87 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $87 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $105 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $93 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $88 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $69 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $56 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $52 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $79 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $155 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $128 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $109 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $96 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $96 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $87 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $113 29h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $118 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $85 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $98 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $91 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $89 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records