Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcbf9…64f1 weather 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$282 (-1%) realized −$304 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,126per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$21
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$548
other 13% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤90d 3 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.5%
all 28 +35.6% +22.7% 71% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.7% 25% -10.3%
10% +10.9% 18% -18.9%
15% +0.2% 14% -26.7%
20% -9.6% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,905) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +68% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$404 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$1,084
Realized−$304
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage316d
Avg bet$1,126
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $457 $456 −$0 (-0%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $411 $432 +$22 (+5%)
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2 Jun 12 $742 +$8 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 12 $301 +$12 +4%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? May 23 $995 +$48 +5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March Mar 12 $979 −$979 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Febru Mar 12 $1,786 −$1,458 -82%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru Mar 12 $2,562 −$551 -22%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in Febru Mar 12 $366 +$658 +180%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? Mar 12 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru Mar 04 $1,905 +$5 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in Janua Feb 13 $38 −$4 -12%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Janua Feb 13 $146 −$19 -13%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Janua Feb 13 $188 −$188 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Janua Feb 11 $218 +$382 +175%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026? Feb 09 $4,441 +$163 +4%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026? Feb 02 $1,700 +$22 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Decem Jan 14 $13 +$117 +885%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Decem Jan 14 $326 +$24 +7%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025? Jan 14 $2,364 +$131 +6%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025? Jan 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in Novem Dec 11 $399 +$64 +16%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025? Dec 11 $966 +$34 +4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in Novem Dec 11 $44 +$33 +75%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $800 +$200 +25%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Octob Nov 15 $181 +$19 +10%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Octob Nov 15 $425 +$16 +4%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in October 2025 ( Nov 15 $4,789 +$788 +16%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Septe Oct 12 $3,334 +$133 +4%
2025 August second hottest on record? Sep 13 $3,267 +$68 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $72 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $385 1h
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $105 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY No 98¢ $172 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June BUY No 98¢ $90 9d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY No 91¢ $133 9d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY No 88¢ $107 9d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2 BUY No 99¢ $47 29d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2 BUY No 99¢ $156 29d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 BUY No 97¢ $129 29d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2 BUY No 99¢ $30 29d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2 BUY No 99¢ $99 29d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2 BUY No 99¢ $411 29d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 BUY No 95¢ $171 29d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? BUY No 95¢ $995 101d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March BUY No 91¢ $91 101d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March BUY No 91¢ $888 101d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? BUY No 68¢ $116 108d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru SELL No 98¢ $76 108d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru SELL No 98¢ $21 108d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? BUY No 67¢ $263 108d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru SELL No 98¢ $286 108d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in Febru BUY Yes 22¢ $22 109d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 109d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru SELL No 94¢ $9 109d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 109d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 109d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru SELL No 94¢ $188 109d
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 109d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Febru SELL No 94¢ $47 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,083.52 · official $1,083.52 (match) · 345 history records