Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CB 0xcbf9…cae7 crypto 8 markets active 2d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+6%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% $0
other 20% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 17% -12.5%
≤30d 7 +3.5% -6.3% 43% 29% -10.5%
≤90d 7 +3.5% -6.3% 43% 29% -10.5%
all 7 +3.5% -6.3% 43% 29% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 29% -10.5%
10% -15.3% 14% -19.0%
15% -23.5% 0% -26.9%
20% -31.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 33¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $8 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 33¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 22¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 30¢ $1 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 70¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 56¢ $1 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 76¢ $1 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $1.26 (match) · 26 history records