Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CB 0xcbf9…b521 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$351 (+18%) realized +$98 · open +$253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 560d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$590
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤30d 1 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤90d 1 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +16.7%
all 3 -57.0% -61.1% 33% 33% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.1% 33% +15.7%
10% -64.8% 33% +4.7%
15% -68.2% 0% -5.5%
20% -71.3% 0% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$5 · ×69.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.6 per $1 lost it wins $34.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$253
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage560d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 54¢ 73¢ $740 $993 +$253 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $1,180 +$342 +29%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Lula out before April? Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $53 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $13 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $138 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $138 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $138 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $122 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 2h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 3h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 3h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,180 40d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 559d
Lula out before April? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 559d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.27 · official $993.27 (match) · 18 history records