Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbf5…53c9 other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$630 (+1%) realized +$2,000 · open −$1,370
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%67W / 97L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$507est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4,575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$93
14 days+$25
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$132
sports 42% +$848
world 11% −$1,042
politics 2% +$40
weather 2% +$4
crypto 1% +$542
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% +1.9%
≤30d 27 -52.2% -56.7% 22% 22% -16.8%
≤90d 117 -14.0% -22.2% 39% 33% -4.5%
all 164 -14.2% -22.4% 41% 31% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 31% -6.4%
10% -29.8% 25% -15.3%
15% -36.6% 19% -23.5%
20% -42.8% 16% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$102 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$4,575
Realized+$2,000
Unrealized−$1,370
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses67 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$507
Open positions5
Markets (closed)164 / 172
History coverage156d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,969 $2,112 −$857 (-29%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,544 $1,440 −$104 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $795 $700 −$95 (-12%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $437 $273 −$164 (-38%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $50 −$150 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 21 $585 +$151 +26%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $154 −$57 -37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $120 −$9 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $11 +$3 +28%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $93 −$2 -3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $57 +$20 +34%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $7 −$7 -97%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gra Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $728 +$556 +76%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $605 −$239 -40%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $408 −$274 -67%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $295 −$233 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $70 −$22 -31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Borja Iglesias be included in Spain's official 2026 World Cup squ May 25 $28 +$7 +26%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Engl May 23 $309 −$5 -2%
Will Jarrod Bowen be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ May 22 $12 +$11 +89%
Will Djed Spence be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa May 22 $15 +$15 +105%
Will Dan Burn be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad l May 22 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 20 $1,246 +$52 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 20? May 20 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Savinho be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $1,036 +$101 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Fabinho be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Alejandro Garnacho be included in Argentina's official 2026 World May 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Trabzonspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 1.5 May 17 $102 +$219 +214%
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score May 17 $242 −$128 -53%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$38 -74%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 1.5 May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 5.5 May 15 $401 +$27 +7%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $482 1h
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $736 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $450 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,567 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $281 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $97 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AN BUY $2 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $304 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $23 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $10 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $14 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $11 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $91 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $10 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Wi BUY 25¢ $26 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $93 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $214 10d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 14d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 73¢ $57 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P SELL Yes 100¢ $40 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 20¢ $5 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran BUY Yes 12¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,574.96 · official $4,574.96 (match) · 1275 history records