Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbf4…e213 world 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$6
other 17% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 13% −$12
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 27 +6.9% -3.3% 63% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 65 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 3% -9.2%
all 66 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage485d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $57 −$4 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $40 +$2 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $121 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 $0 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $40 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $48 +$1 +3%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 23 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1 +$1 +43%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $33 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $32 $0 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $17 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $24 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.01 · official $29.93 · 291 history records