Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CB 0xcbf2…38d0 crypto 1691 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$524 (-1%) realized −$524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1660W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$43
14 days+$85
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 474 +1.1% -8.5% 99% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 1691 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 1691 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$32 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1660 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1691 / 1691
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1691 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $43 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $42 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $46 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $46 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $46 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $44 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $45 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $43 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $43 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records