Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CB 0xcbf1…c9b1 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+9%) realized +$137 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$177
sports 31% +$280
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -76.2% -78.4% 0% 0% -78.4%
≤30d 2 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 50% +9.1%
≤90d 2 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 50% +9.1%
all 2 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 50% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 50% +9.1%
10% -20.6% 50% -1.4%
15% -28.3% 50% -10.9%
20% -35.3% 50% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$156 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$629
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage21d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 62¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $200 $216 +$16 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 18 $205 −$156 -76%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $399 +$280 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 61¢ $253 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 13¢ $49 2h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 53¢ $205 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $399 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $629.38 · official $629.38 (match) · 26 history records