Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CB 0xcbf0…0536 other 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+0%) realized +$150 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate61%105W / 68L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$100
14 days+$63
30 days+$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$301
politics 24% +$46
sports 10% −$1
world 2% +$94
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 4% -9.1%
≤30d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 5% -8.5%
all 173 -0.2% -9.7% 61% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 5% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 3% -17.3%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.37 per $1 lost it wins $4.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses105 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions19
Markets (closed)173 / 193
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$231
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 94¢ 93¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 95¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 95¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 94¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? No 94¢ 94¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 99¢ 91¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $574 +$1 +0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $450 −$1 -0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $914 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $487 $0 -0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $1,126 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $615 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $484 $0 +0%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $328 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $495 $0 +0%
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $973 $0 +0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $524 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $713 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $552 $0 +0%
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $159 +$47 +30%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $214 +$1 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $472 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $99 −$7 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $129 +$1 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $34 38m
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $34 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $34 2h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 3h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 4h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $34 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $34 4h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 5h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $4 5h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $31 5h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 5h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $29 5h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY No 99¢ $20 5h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 5h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 5h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 5h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 5h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $34 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $34 6h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $21 6h
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 6h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 6h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $13 6h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $34 6h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 98¢ $34 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.82 · official $547.82 (match) · 3500 history records